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A signal has two layers. They are obtained differently, verified differently, and — critically — only one of them can settle a market.

The line: implied probability

The line comes from TxLINE’s StablePrice feed: demargined consensus odds, so the percentage reads as a true probability rather than a bookmaker’s marked-up price. Each odds update is an Odds record:
The implied probability for an outcome is its Pct[] entry — a 3-decimal percent string (for example "39.432"), positionally parallel to PriceNames[]. That is the value that settles markets. On-chain, it is scaled to an integer as round(Pct × 1000), so "39.432" becomes 39432.
The settling value is not taken from Prices[]. That array holds decimal odds × 1000, which is a different quantity on a different scale. Reading the wrong array produces a plausible-looking number that settles markets incorrectly.
Every update is committed into a batch whose Merkle root is anchored on Solana.

The volume: support and resistance

The volume layer comes from Volmarket’s own escrow — aggregate stake-by-level, held as publicly readable on-chain state. Volume only informs; it never settles. It shapes the displayed profile and suggests where a level sits, but no outcome is ever decided by internal stake. This separation is what makes the market non-manipulable. Manufacturing internal volume moves the picture, not the payout.

The level that settles

The level L is snapped from TxLINE’s anchored StablePrice at market open:
  • support = current − δ
  • resistance = current + δ
Because the level derives from public anchored odds rather than user stake, no participant can manufacture the level they are predicting against.

Verification

An odds update is provable via its Merkle proof — a two-stage subTreeProof plus mainTreeProof. You reconstruct the root and compare it against the on-chain root through TxLINE’s validate_odds instruction. This is not theoretical. The CPI is deployed and verified on devnet; see Settlement and proof verification for the transaction and how to reproduce it. Because the profile is a pure function of public, anchored data, anyone can recompute it identically.