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A signal has two layers. They are obtained differently, verified differently, and — critically — only one of them can settle a market.

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The line: implied probability

The line comes from TxLINE’s StablePrice feed: demargined consensus odds, so the percentage reads as a true probability rather than a bookmaker’s marked-up price. Each odds update is an Odds record:
The implied probability for an outcome is its Pct[] entry — a 3-decimal percent string (for example "39.432"), positionally parallel to PriceNames[]. That is the value that settles markets. On-chain, it is scaled to an integer as round(Pct × 1000), so "39.432" becomes 39432.
The settling value is not taken from Prices[]. That array holds decimal odds × 1000, which is a different quantity on a different scale. Reading the wrong array produces a plausible-looking number that settles markets incorrectly.
Every update is committed into a batch whose Merkle root is anchored on Solana.

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The volume: support and resistance

The volume layer comes from Volmarket’s own escrow — aggregate stake-by-level, held as publicly readable on-chain state. Volume only informs; it never settles. It shapes the displayed profile and suggests where a level sits, but no outcome is ever decided by internal stake. This separation is what makes the market non-manipulable. Manufacturing internal volume moves the picture, not the payout.

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The level that settles

The level L is snapped from TxLINE’s anchored StablePrice at market open:
  • support = current − δ
  • resistance = current + δ
Because the level derives from public anchored odds rather than user stake, no participant can manufacture the level they are predicting against.

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Verification

An odds update is provable via its Merkle proof — a two-stage subTreeProof plus mainTreeProof. You reconstruct the root and compare it against the on-chain root through TxLINE’s validate_odds instruction. This is not theoretical. The CPI is deployed and verified on devnet; see Settlement and proof verification for the transaction and how to reproduce it. Because the profile is a pure function of public, anchored data, anyone can recompute it identically.