> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.volmarket.xyz/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# How signals work

> How Volmarket's volume signal is calculated from TxLINE's demargined odds and on-chain stake, and how each layer is verified.

A signal has two layers. They are obtained differently, verified differently, and — critically — only one of them can settle a market.

## The line: implied probability

The line comes from TxLINE's **StablePrice** feed: demargined consensus odds, so the percentage reads as a true probability rather than a bookmaker's marked-up price.

Each odds update is an `Odds` record:

```
FixtureId · MessageId · Ts · SuperOddsType · MarketParameters
PriceNames[] · Prices[] · Pct[] · InRunning
```

The implied probability for an outcome is its **`Pct[]`** entry — a 3-decimal percent string (for example `"39.432"`), positionally parallel to `PriceNames[]`. That is the value that settles markets.

On-chain, it is scaled to an integer as `round(Pct × 1000)`, so `"39.432"` becomes `39432`.

<Warning>
  The settling value is **not** taken from `Prices[]`. That array holds decimal odds × 1000, which is a different quantity on a different scale. Reading the wrong array produces a plausible-looking number that settles markets incorrectly.
</Warning>

Every update is committed into a batch whose Merkle root is anchored on Solana.

## The volume: support and resistance

The volume layer comes from Volmarket's own escrow — aggregate stake-by-level, held as publicly readable on-chain state.

**Volume only informs; it never settles.** It shapes the displayed profile and suggests where a level sits, but no outcome is ever decided by internal stake.

This separation is what makes the market non-manipulable. Manufacturing internal volume moves the picture, not the payout.

## The level that settles

The level `L` is snapped from TxLINE's anchored StablePrice at market open:

* **support** = current − δ
* **resistance** = current + δ

Because the level derives from public anchored odds rather than user stake, no participant can manufacture the level they are predicting against.

## Verification

An odds update is provable via its Merkle proof — a two-stage `subTreeProof` plus `mainTreeProof`. You reconstruct the root and compare it against the on-chain root through TxLINE's `validate_odds` instruction.

This is not theoretical. The CPI is deployed and verified on devnet; see [Settlement and proof verification](/settlement#the-real-txline-cpi) for the transaction and how to reproduce it.

Because the profile is a pure function of public, anchored data, anyone can recompute it identically.